The growth rate of retail sales in the apparel industry has plummeted. Industry concentration will accelerate

In 2011-2016, China's garment production achieved a “five consecutive rises”  25.42 billion to 31.452 billion, with an average annual compound growth rate of 4.4%. This also shows that in the era of traditional retail prevalence, the rapid growth of the apparel industry is There is a great possibility.

Entering 2017, the e-commerce model broke out  “new retail” was proposed  included in the national policy. Industrial transformation is inevitable. However, the apparel industry did  realize a major change in the industrial model in 2017. According to forward-looking industry research. According to the data released by the Institute on the forecast  analysis of production  sales demand  development prospects of China's garment industry, the output of the apparel industry in 2017 reached 28.78 billion pieces, the first decline in 6 years, with a drop of 8.5%.

Clothing industry development trend

(1) High channel costs  chasing traffic. In the offline aspect, the cost of shopping centers that can bring the best passenger flow is high. In 2012-2017, the retail sales of specialty store clothing stores increased, department store channels decreased,  large brands with traffic effects will further occupy shopping at lower cost. The quality of the center  other quality channels is better. On the online side, the proportion of online channels continues to increase in 2012-2017. The black hole effect on the line is obvious (high-quality brands are more likely to perform relatively well),  high-quality brands are expected to attract more benefits  large platforms. mutual benefit.

(2) In the industry adjustment stage of 2011-2016, leading enterprises gradually established barriers. The technical barriers of clothing itself are relatively low. Before 2011, the industry was in the extensive development stage of “staking the road” through the channel,  then entered the adjustment period of 6-7 years. At this stage, some leading enterprises invested in the supply chain  strengthened brand management. Establishing a solid brand  efficiency barrier will give it a more obvious first-mover advantage during the industry recovery period.

(3) The cost of raw materials is high,  SMEs will clear. Polyester  cotton are one of the most important costs in the apparel industry. China's polyester price index has continued to grow since 2016. China's 328 cotton price index has rebounded since 2016Q2. At the same time, due to the continuous decline of national cotton storage stocks, the global inventory consumption ratio has dropped significantly since 2014/2015,  it is still possible to continue to increase prices for a long time. Within the interval, the increase in the prices of major raw materials will further drive the price of products such as grey cloths to promote industry concentration.